(Black) Swan Lake Russia

By definition, something that we can “see coming” is not a black swan event. Like Russia. I realize that “past performance does not necessarily predict future results”, but in my experience, past downside performance is a strong indicator of future downside performance. Yes, stocks are rallying now. We’re in the phase right after the initial

Russia: worse than 1998?

Art Cashin is on the record, saying yesterday this is not like 1998 all over again. Really? 2:47AM, this comes across the tape: “We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at Bank of Russia, said yesterday. He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the