(Black) Swan Lake Russia

By definition, something that we can “see coming” is not a black swan event. Like Russia. I realize that “past performance does not necessarily predict future results”, but in my experience, past downside performance is a strong indicator of future downside performance. Yes, stocks are rallying now. We’re in the phase right after the initial

Revise 2015 economic forecasts now

For your eyes only. Please do not circulate. Obviously, the forecasts will not come to pass, but we don’t know which way. As bad as things look now (and it will probably get worse before it gets better), there is one wildcard — the departure of Vladimir Putin. Also, I think U.S.-Cuban relations thawing at

Russia: worse than 1998?

Art Cashin is on the record, saying yesterday this is not like 1998 all over again. Really? 2:47AM, this comes across the tape: “We couldn’t imagine what’s happening in our worst nightmare even a year ago,” Shvetsov, who oversees financial markets at Bank of Russia, said yesterday. He said the surprise interest-rate increase in the

Stein’s Law and the Human Condition

Stein’s Law states that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” so when I came across two articles and some little-known statistics last night, it got me thinking about this whole “Obamacare” debate. Maybe elimination by attrition is how survival of the fittest manifests itself in a democratic system.