SUMMARY: Oh no, not again!
R and “expectancy” go hand in hand. It is the brain child of Van Tharp. If you google this word, you see right away that there isn’t much written about it, mainly because in the world of probability and statistics, it is simply known as the “expected value”.
Robert wrote: Thanks for the time and effort you put into your website. It is of great encouragement to me that I am heading in the right direction. . . .Recently I concluded that I needed to develop and maintain a list of high price-high range stocks to trade and backtest. So your latest articles
Came across a great little book that every trader should read. Itâ€™s called Chance: A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market, and Just About Everything Else by Amir D. Aczel. He is also the author of the unversity textbook, Complete Business Statistics. Youâ€™ll see in the next two posts why statistics matter.
SUMMARY: Intraday trading has made a big comeback over the past few months. People are making money hand over fist in a directional market with breathtaking range. The same people who insisted that the market had changed are back to their old ways. And this is usually the time to remind oneself that a good market often hides a multitude of sins. Letâ€™s take a walk down memory lane. Iâ€™ve applied my own range indicator with a two-month rolling window.
Bought The Age of Turbulence last week. The reason Iâ€™m only halfway through the book is because I have to tear myself away to write code. Thereâ€™s no time to write a review, but suffice to say that this opus is the economistâ€™s version of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a must read. And while youâ€™re at it, check out a December 2004 speech by Ben Bernake called The Logic of Monetary Policy.
SUMMARY: For those who missed the money & banking course in third year econ, James Hamilton explains the money creation mechanism in plain English and shows readers how to account for and reconcile the activities of the Federal Reserve from August 8, 2007 to now [QUOTE]. The truth is really quite boring compared to the conspiracy theories, eh?
SUMMARY: Another day, another sad tale of a forex trader gone belly up [Quote from article at IHT]. Given the typical lifespan of an FX trader is a mere 45 days, one hopes that the industry would take a more proactive approach to educating speculators about the dangers of leverage. But that would be like a casino telling their patrons that gambling is badâ€¦
Mid-week, Mark Tinker was interviewed by Guy Johnson on CNBC Europe Tonight . As usual, he provided food for thought in the midst of madness [VIDEO].
SUMMARY: In contrast to Uglyâ€™s boxed wine, Dr. Brettâ€™s thoughts on the death of the super-trader dream, and my comment on trading as the unglamourous life, the real life of those who manage OPM (other peopleâ€™s money) is truly â€¦ glamourous. They travel in style [QUOTE $28,000 Bari bag]. They know the definition of a “cellar’s market” [QUOTE $320,000 case of Colgin Cellars wine]. And you wonder why so many deals suffer from The Winnerâ€™s Curseâ€¦
SUMMARY: Less than one week after ordering a new computer, I awoke yesterday to find my main trading computer dead. Without the computer, I found myself with nothing to do. Absolutely nothing. I ended up visiting buddies at the old office, and since the day ends at 1:00PM local time, I indulged in a little unauthorized reading of the September issue of W magazine where I found two articles about what most of us would consider “the glamourous life” that mirror the reality of the capital markets…
SUMMARY: Please accept my apologies for the lack of posts to the blog. There are work-related things going on in the background that require my attention for the next week or two. Here is a much-edited transcript from The Trading Clinic that might be of interest to intraday traders. It was a classic “it is written” sort of day, filled with traps for emotional and “breakout” traders.
I ordered a new computer from Dell this morning, just before I read an article by Larry Jacobs extolling the virtues of a setup that would be overkill even for an animator at Pixar. I almost fell off my chair. While itâ€™s great to have a super-duper toy, the fact is that the Dell Vostro 200s I bought today ($849 before tax and shipping) will support two monitors and do everything I need. I also have a Maxtor external hard drive that will be used to back up the computer. Other than that, may I offer some serious suggestions for the trading computer?
SUMMARY: August was a good month to come back to intraday trading because, to paraphrase Gordon Gekko, volatility is good. The point I spent all month emphasizing in The Trading Clinic is this: trade when itâ€™s moving, when there is plenty of range. In other words, if you see a car travelling east at 60MPH, it is not hard to predict where it will be one minute from now; however, if you see a snail on a hot pavement at high noon, betting where it might be an hour from now is a waste of money. The other important point is the fact that risk is asymmetrical in that there is no remedy available to the trader that selects a symbol and time frame that is dead, dead, dead. Losses are sure to follow in the chop. A trader that selects a large time frame in a volatile market can simply reduce size, and stands a good chance of making money from big swings. Hereâ€™s an updated screenshot of how the intraday trading system has done with index futures since the beginning of the September contract. The model portfolio is now up $126,877.50 since June 6, 2007.
The text of FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech is now online. U.S. President Bush is on deck to “announce at 11:10 a.m. in Washington that the Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages for low- and middle-income borrowers, will guarantee loans for delinquent borrowers, allowing them to avoid foreclosure and refinance at more favorable rates, according
SUMMARY: Over the past few weeks, I have read soooooooo many articles and blog entries about â€œunprecedentedâ€ short-term volatility. Because my recollection differs, I did my best to ignore those anecdotal comments, but when John Bogle announced on CNBC yesterday [VIDEO] that itâ€™s the worst heâ€™s seen in his 55 year career, I knew I had to go back into history and take a look at past Puke-O-Ramas. This is the weekly chart of the S&P 500 index. The red dots mark out spots where the market had big moves to the downside. As you can see, those red dots have been few and far between since the 2003 lows. In fact, itâ€™s not been this â€œpeacefulâ€ since the early 1990s. So no, these gyrations are not unprecedented. It was much worse in the bad old days of the dot com boom.
As the days goes on, a few interesting stories have found their way to my reading list. 1. The subprime swamp has not been fully drained. 2. Canadians will pay for BMO’s $500 billion loss in natural gas. 3. To all economists: the subprime defaults came before the fixed income meltdown. 4. How Wall Street will bury entire nations. Stories and reaction are at the website.
The IMF Survey Magazine just published an excellent article based on a “new IMF working paper [that] traces the origins of the subprime market and its current problems, and reviews the policy options. The new loan origination and funding technology employed in the subprime area has protected depositary institutions from significant losses at the risk
SUMMARY: I visited a friendâ€™s office last week. He told me about a classmate who launched a fund back in 1998. Assets under management have grown to over $1 billion, generating $20 million in management fees annually.
I was stunned to see on the one-page sales blurb where the return of the fund was billed as 23% compounded vs. 2.71% for the S&P. I said to my friend that there are several obvious problems with this comparison. More at PowerSwings.com.
That was the question Lakshman Achuthan from ECRI answered on PowerLunch today [VIDEO]. Earlier in the day, ECRI released itâ€™s Weekly Leading Index numbers.