For your eyes only. Please do not circulate.
Obviously, the forecasts will not come to pass, but we don’t know which way. As bad as things look now (and it will probably get worse before it gets better), there is one wildcard — the departure of Vladimir Putin. Also, I think U.S.-Cuban relations thawing at this point is not a co-incidence, what with Russia in no position to support Cuba anymore, and Venezuela going to hell at the same time.
As usual, money talks. Bullshit walks.